My goal is to make it easy to make small bets, in proportion to available capital, each with potentially extraordinary rewards. Life is full of random events. Luck, timing, and talent, in that order. But we can influence our odds of being lucky.
Let’s start an imaginary venture capital fund and do some investing! To better understand what it takes to raise money from VCs, let’s imagine what it would be like to successfully deploy a venture fund.
To build successful, valuable companies you need to understand how financial markets work. Building great products is still the most value-generating work a founder can spend time on, but it isn’t the only piece of the puzzle. Here are some reflections based on my recent experiences talking to investors.
At Kognic, we're committed to fostering a world-class team and company culture—our principles include transparency, performance, trust, and rapid iteration. We address the principal-agent problem by aligning goals and risk preferences, nurturing a culture inclusive of gender and ethnicity but exclusive in determination and vision.
There is a need for world models in AI for robust intelligence grounded in reality. Current artificial intelligence techniques are inferior compared to human and animal learning. By distilling "natural concepts" from observing the world, we can create robust AI that does not catastrophically fail on small changes in the input. These "natural concepts" are best expressed as embeddings.
From enthusiasts to skeptics and the frightened, AI evokes strong reactions. I’ve entertained many different possibilities in the last year, but I’m increasingly converging on a feeling of excitement. I think AI has the potential to turbocharge our world's betterment efforts. Of course, hurdles like job displacement and AI's environmental impact exist and need to be taken seriously. I'm a strong proponent of free-market democracy shaping AI's evolution. AI should reflect human diversity, not impose a global moral bias. Self-improving AI systems are possible, but theoretical.
Humans are essential, but human existence is not unconditional. We impose regulation when self-interest fails to protect our long-term, common good. Super-intelligent AIs might be similar to companies, which implies they could be regulated. There is an old debate about whether technology risks replacing humans that is accelerating again. It is not clear if “this time is different.” Human goals, preferences, and ethics are constantly changing. This protects us from automation. We have a moral obligation to protect the subjective, conscious experiences of other humans.
AI is overwhelmingly positive, and super-intelligent AGI is most likely still distant. We cannot rule out the possibility of self-improvement capabilities, but it is unlikely. We have no idea how super-intelligent AGI would impact society, and your feelings will depend on how you handle tail risk. Either way, we have practical issues to deal with now, like misinformation, reskilling, and emissions.
Those who know me know I’ve always been skeptical about hyperbolic claims around AI. I always preferred machine learning over artificial intelligence because AI felt pompous. My understanding of the available technology gave me no reason to think we were close to some sort of human-like intelligence. But I’d rather be correct than consistent. It is fair to call today’s algorithms a form of AI. I have changed my mind about the possibility of near-term AGI, and I’m implementing many behavioral updates to align my life with my new view.
This post reflects on the role of skill and luck in business. There are trainable components but also innate factors like IQ. Business is a series of strategic bets, with success influenced by both skill and chance. The best way to improve your odds is with a strategic, learning-oriented approach to enhance success odds. Experimentation and resilience play a crucial role in navigating the unpredictable landscape of entrepreneurship.