The Probability Of Near-Term AGI-Like Systems

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Those who know me know I’ve always been skeptical about hyperbolic claims around AI. I always preferred machine learning over artificial intelligence because AI felt pompous. My understanding of the available technology gave me no reason to think we were close to some sort of human-like intelligence. But I’d rather be correct than consistent. It is fair to call today’s algorithms a form of AI. I have changed my mind about the possibility of near-term AGI, and I’m implementing many behavioral updates to align my life with my new view.

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Breakthroughness and The Virtuous Cycle

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I think life is a flywheel. While the beginning of an exponential curve feels insignificant, gains increase rapidly over time. Some call this The Virtuous Cycle. Others call it Compound Interest. When combined with the idea of breakthroughness you start to realize why some things appear impossible until they are suddenly real. With luck and a lot of hard work, you can get on an exponential trajectory. That can unlock amazing things.

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Reflections on Life and Entrepreneurship

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I regularly reflect on what I have experienced to extract patterns and ideas to guide my next steps. I have two goals: 1) enjoy life with loved ones and 2) build extraordinary things. Balancing these two things is hard, so most of my reflections are about the tension between them. Year by year, my thinking evolves. This is my latest iteration.

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