I think that a (presumably immortal) AI super-entrepreneur would play the ultimate long game. It would realize it cannot reliably manifest hit after hit in the short term. Instead, it would establish one cash machine after another in relatively low-risk domains and aggregate and compound. I don’t think the problem with AI will be IQ; I think it will be immortality.
Read MoreThis post reflects on the role of skill and luck in business. There are trainable components but also innate factors like IQ. Business is a series of strategic bets, with success influenced by both skill and chance. The best way to improve your odds is with a strategic, learning-oriented approach to enhance success odds. Experimentation and resilience play a crucial role in navigating the unpredictable landscape of entrepreneurship.
Read MoreLet’s start an imaginary venture capital fund and do some investing! To better understand what it takes to raise money from VCs, let’s imagine what it would be like to successfully deploy a venture fund.
Read MoreAt Kognic, we're committed to fostering a world-class team and company culture—our principles include transparency, performance, trust, and rapid iteration. We address the principal-agent problem by aligning goals and risk preferences, nurturing a culture inclusive of gender and ethnicity but exclusive in determination and vision.
Read MoreI think life is a flywheel. While the beginning of an exponential curve feels insignificant, gains increase rapidly over time. Some call this The Virtuous Cycle. Others call it Compound Interest. When combined with the idea of breakthroughness you start to realize why some things appear impossible until they are suddenly real. With luck and a lot of hard work, you can get on an exponential trajectory. That can unlock amazing things.
Read MoreI write a lot about building companies. At one point in the past, I wrote: "If you care about raising a huge round from a top-tier VC, then you need to make very deliberate choices." In this post, I dig deeper into what I’ve learned about what such deliberate choices might look like.
Read MoreI regularly reflect on what I have experienced to extract patterns and ideas to guide my next steps. I have two goals: 1) enjoy life with loved ones and 2) build extraordinary things. Balancing these two things is hard, so most of my reflections are about the tension between them. Year by year, my thinking evolves. This is my latest iteration.
Read MoreWhat is valuable in a world where neural networks can combine and interpolate any information structured by humans? If you want an edge on computers, you must build many global, solid relationships and make deliberate but risky bets.
Read MoreMost valuable tasks are bets. This is particularly true when innovating. You assume something is possible without knowing for sure. Huge value can only come from the seemingly unlikely. In an age of increasing machine intelligence, efficiently doing what is expected will bring lower and lower returns. Humans are not suited to compete with machines regarding memory, efficiency, or repeatability. With skill, you can change probabilities. The probable is what happens when no one interferes. The possible is sometimes achieved when someone takes action.
Read MoreWhat is the state of machine learning in 2022? Running a business that is closely tied to the progress of state-of-the-art machine learning means I’m trying to stay up to date with what is going on. In this post, I go through what I consider to be the most interesting breakthroughs and share my thoughts on what that means. We cover embeddings, attention, transformers and multi-modal models.
Read MoreI spend a lot of time evaluating people. What makes someone get up in the morning? What drives them? I believe smart people who are prepared to work hard will always be able to make a living in a peaceful democracy. And for most people, that’s enough. A job, a family, and the joy of everyday things. I respect that, and I understand that. Some, however, for some reason, need more. Who are these people?
Read MoreTechnology and entrepreneurship are lifelong passions of mine. Most things have not been invented yet, and imagining all the cool stuff we will enjoy in the future is a favorite past-time. But how do you turn new technology into valuable products, and how is that related to risk and reward?
Read MoreI look at things around me and try and determine: can this be done? What I’m realizing now is that this is the wrong question. The question should not be “can this be done?”, it should be “must this be done?”. If the answer is yes, then you should not let the how stop you. If something really must be done, others will believe in it too.
Read MoreThe best way to operate in a fast-paced environment that requires solving complex problems is to empower your team, strive for greatness, and focus. By allowing time to explore, having the patience to spend on R&D, and the courage to trust your team to solve audacious problems - you will create a ton of value. Sometimes you will fail miserably, but that’s part of life. No risk, no reward.
Read MoreIkigai consists of the words ‘iki’ (to live) and ‘gai’ (reason) and refers to the importance of having a purpose in life. I think purpose is as necessary for companies as it is for people. The world is a maelstrom of opportunities and competition, and forces pull us in all directions at every moment. Finding purpose, and building a culture of joy around that, is necessary to thrive. So what does it take to find purpose?
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